Blog

By the time you read this I will be recuperating in the hospital. Hopefully the markets are recuperating from a very volatile quarter or at the very least the damage from last Friday’s action. Still the markets are near all-time highs...

I know it has been some time since I last wrote but thought now would be an appropriate time as ever as this season is all about the consumer. Following the feast, the ever-anticipated Black Friday crept up fast, and Americans were...

Yesterday, a mentor and dear friend, Gregory Van Kipnis was laid to rest in Daphne, AL. I am sorry that I could not make the funeral. I cannot say enough good things about our relationship (I have written about that...

So far in November we have been experiencing a small decline in the markets. I call this a market breather. Think about going out to a nice meal and then suddenly, you cannot eat one more bite of delicious food. Your...

We made it through the Jewish High Holidays, the end of Summer, the assassination of Charlie Kirk, much of the Major League Baseball Playoffs (the Toronto Blue Jays face the Los Angeles Dodgers...

Well, my August did not exactly go as planned. Yes, my friends came up for a few days to visit. It was nice to spend time together. Unfortunately, our new boat engine did not function, so our day on Lake...

Off to the Adirondacks By the time you read this I will be in, or on my way to our house in Bolton Landing, NY overlooking Lake George with our friends, the Rosens. On Tuesday, we will be on our boat with our friends on Lake George,...

The 12-day War Let me preface this commentary by letting you know how proud our family was of Carly. As some of you may have already been aware, earlier last month Carly took a group of Las Vegans (is that the correct term?) to Israel...

So far, May 2025 has been one of our best months ever, across all equity strategies. For one, I ignored the President Trump-Jerome Powell death match. Furthermore, it came as no surprise that Jerome Powell and his cast of characters at...

It’s come down to this: President Donald Trump versus Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. In the old days (pre-2000) it would have been fought, on a metaphorical basis, in the boxing ring or in a...

To start, there was a relief rally Wednesday. It was a Whopper of a Relief Rally with the S&P500 (SPX) surging 9.52%. It was tied for the 8th largest percentage rally for the SPX of all time. Should you be drawing any parallels to 2020...

There is much I want to talk about. To keep the commentary concise, I plan to issue a 2-part My Gut Feeling on recent stock market and economic events. Trumps Tariffs To set the table, let me say a few things about the new tariffs...

If there’s one thing I like, it is a challenge. With Tariffs being bounced around like a pickleball since January, we have been watching some specific industries like a hawk. One being the...

Let me begin by defining what a correction is. A correction is defined as a pullback of 10% or more for an individual asset class – the S&P 500 (SPX), Gold, Bonds, etc. Bear markets are thought to commence when the correction is of the...

When I say strange, I say so from the perspective of good, bad and indifferent. Here are some examples. Please excuse me if the foregoing seems a bit too technical (but hey that’s what we get paid for). Apple Seems to Have a Negative...

To be honest, there have been a few shocks that the markets have dealt with the past two weeks: the DeepSeek (or as I refer to it as the DeepFake) sell-off and the great Tariff scare. Both of them...

I would like to share some of my thoughts for the Consumer Discretionary Sector for the upcoming year. 2025 is expected to be a big year for consumer travel. According to the International Trade Administration, total international...

Another year has come and gone. Now that the ball has dropped in Times Square, it’s time for me to publish my expectations for 2025. I was prepared to release My Gut Feeling for 2025 a few days...

As 2024 is now in the books, let’s take a look at how My Gut Feeling For 2024 performed versus the actual results. In black are my original expectations and in red is how I performed: Wall Street analyst’s expectations appear to be...

Happy Festivus !!! I hope you have your poles ready. I am going to air my grievances as my list of 10 things I Won’t Miss About 2024. Every year since 2002, except for 2021, I have closed out the year with my satirical look at the...

It would be an understatement to say that the stock markets, in general, have had a fantastic year. This comes after a superlative year in 2023. All told, the 2022 Massacre, or what I referred to as the 100 Year...

Greetings from Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, which seems to be ground zero for the Presidential election candidates’ election campaigns. I’m not here for the campaigns but rather the annual Standardbred Horse...

Millennials are starting to have families, making Gen-X and Baby Boomers grandparents. Last week alone, I personally know of four babies who entered the world. One was a family October surprise! This year, my niece turned one and they...

Photo by Ricardo Gomez Angel on Unsplash The Last Month Since I last checked in, it has been a busy month. I made my westward migration to Nevada, though I am headed back east for a few weeks soon on business and pleasure. To begin,...

This week, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will conduct a two-day meeting from Tuesday, September 17 to Wednesday, September 18, culminating in a rate decision to be released at about 2PM EDST on Wednesday, followed by a press...

It’s that time of the quarter, earnings season! After a typical slow, uneventful early August, stocks are back to reporting in full swing and the market has reacted to what it saw thus far. In this discussion, I will highlight some...

If you have been associated with or following LakeView long enough, you would remember Scott’s popular Restaurant & Food strategy. Or perhaps you remember his CNBC interviews discussing McDonald’s (MCD). As a result of the pandemic,...

As I wrote last week, August Came Early This Year. Now it’s in full force. The August effect put the pedal to the metal in just one week. So, what has transpired and what does it all mean? The market had already been correcting, and...

While the calendar says that today is August 1, August, as I have come to know it has come early this year. What do I mean by that? While in politics, the media and electorate have become attuned to what is commonly referred to as...

After a few weeks on the sidelines, My Gut Feeling is back in business. The reason was that after three years of affiliation with Kingswood, LakeView Asset Management (LVAM) made a conscious decision to end that relationship, therefore...

Last Thursday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released its second estimate of 1st quarter 2024 Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The rate stood at 1.3%, adjusted downward from the advance estimate of 1.6%. That was a big miss. Furthermore...

I apologize for not writing my commentary sooner. However, we have been remarkably busy behind the scenes. To begin with (as if I had spare time) I was busy cramming for my Insurance License Exam (Life, Health, Disability) which...

Japan in the 1980s had a stock market that was the global darling. In 1986, the Tokyo Stock Exchange granted membership to six non-Japanese “gaijin” firm. Morgan Stanley, for which I worked at the time, was one of those firms...

Adobe (ADBE) reported its first quarter 2024 earnings on March 13th. The company reported $5.18 billion in revenue, coming in slightly above analyst expectations of $5.15 billion. In addition to...

In every decade there is a stock which is the fulcrum for which the stock market direction is determined. In the 1980s that stock was International Business Machines (IBM) better known as IBM or “Big Blue.” In the 1990s,...

Since bottoming at the end of October, the Standard & Poor’s 500 (SPX) rose approximately 22%, over the milestone 5,000 level at the end of last week. Now, after a fantastic run, you knew that some profit taking would take place....

Netflix Anonymous: My name is Carly, and yes, I am a Netflix freeloader. Recently, I have fallen victim to Netflix’s (NFLX) 2023 password sharing crackdown and as a consumer, I am not happy about it. However, I am no longer just...

Tesla (TSLA) is a darling stock for the Electric Vehicle (EV) crowd. I have followed this stock, and to a lesser extent Elon Musk for many years. Prior to buying the stock in 2020, I actually traded some convertible bonds in TSLA. Our...

2024 will mark my 40th year on Wall Street. I started out at Morgan Stanley (NY, Tokyo, and Hong Kong), County Nat West (NY and London), Merrill Lynch and then since 2002 at the helm of my own firm, LakeView Asset Management. Just a...

As 2023 began, I published My Gut Feeling For 2023. Now that 2023 is in the books, I wanted to look back at how my expectations and predictions fared in 2023. Recall these predictions were made in the spirit of the old Wall Street Week...

It has been almost two years since the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) began raising interest rates. The goal? To ease inflation and temper the consumer. The reality? Frustrated millennials were priced out of home buying, housing...

Every year since 2002, except for 2021, I have closed out the year with my satirical look at the world through the eyes of a professional investor/writer poking fun at what has transpired in our global society during the year about to...

It’s been a fantastic year so far for investors, at least our investors at LakeView Asset Management. The cherry on top of the cake was November’s bull run. During that month, the major indexes...

At its November meeting, which ended last week, November 1 to be precise, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to leave interest rates unchanged. While normally issuing a perplexing post decision meeting press...

Photo by Saad Chaudhry on Unsplash I know that many of you would want a few words about what is going on in Israel. Let me save that for later. First, let me turn to Apple (AAPL). Technology earnings are coming up and there are a few...

Let me begin by saying that the past few weeks have been hectic beyond the normal craziness that I deal with in this business when markets are open. As a result, the time I normally spend on writing and publishing My Gut Feeling...

After a spectacular rise this year for the major equity indexes, we have experienced a correction in August. This begs the question: Why? I have several theories, which I believe have all contributed in some part to the August pullback...

August is well known for the thoroughbred racing season at the historic track in Saratoga Springs. Since 1982 I have been meeting friends from Camp Echo (in Warrensburg, NY) at the track in “our spot” near the Big Red...

The market as with life has its ups and downs. You must learn to take the downs with the ups. Certainly, the past four years with the COVID Pandemic and failed economic policies leading to multi-decade high inflation has been an...

Last year, growth stocks got hit with the ugly stick as we say on Wall Street and plummeted due to rising inflation and interest rates. While we expected a pullback, the rapidity and magnitude of the sell-off was unforeseen, except by...

One of my favorite movies of all time is “Charade” which was released when I was 2 years old, but I first watched it in the 1980s. It has without a doubt one of the finest casts of all-time: Audrey Hepburn, Cary Grant,...

In the late 1960s, during cultural times protesting the Vietnam War, a rock musical by the name of Hair: The American Tribal Love-Rock Musical (commonly referred to as “Hair”) was running on Broadway. In that musical was a...

On Thursday, the markets appeared to be performing well, until two events unfolded. The first was the introduction by the White House for a new budget. What spooked investors in the budget, even though it was likely not to become law,...

We have a busy economic calendar these next two weeks – both data releases, testimony and an FOMC decision.Let’s begin with a review of the first two months of this year. January and the early part of February began on...

For those of you too young to recognize the name, or perhaps are not a connoisseur of baseball, Hoyt Wilhelm was a relief pitcher in the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s who was elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame in 1985. He specialized in...

2022 was without a doubt a horrible year for the financial markets. If the late Queen Elizabeth were writing this MGF she would describe 2022 as an “annus horriblus.” For the markets, Growth / Tech stocks got hit hard. The...

Every year since 2002, except for 2021, I have closed out the year with my satirical look at the world through the eyes of a professional investor/writer poking fun at what has transpired in our global society during the year about to...

It was made official on Friday that Cryptocurrency exchange, FTX would be filling for bankruptcy. All the details are yet to become public but a few things that we know is that FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried has resigned, he leveraged...

Historically, according to my research, going back to 1950, in the 16-quarter election cycle, the best performing quarter is that of the fourth quarter of the mid-term election year and the second-best quarter is that of the following quart

On the first day of Economics class as a Freshman at The Wharton School of Business, Prof. Levine wrote on the big chalkboard in a lecture hall full of about 200 other students: Y = C + I + G. (It was too early to introduce X –...

After a nice rebound in the stock market, in terms of the S&P 500 (SPX) from mid-June to mid-August of about 17%, we appeared to hit a brick wall in mid-August and fell just over 9% through September 6 after which buyers stepped back...

When I wrote last, I outlined the earnings and economic calendar that the markets were about to face. It was, as I described to my daughter Carly, Stock Market Hell Week. We had a slew of corporate earnings reports...

The markets are set to experience a busy and volatile week. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will be meeting and making another decision as to its monetary stance. All indications are that a Fed Funds rate hike of 75 basis...

BUYERS STEPPING UP Green Shoot #1 - Wednesday’s report of 9.1% year-over-year increase in the Consumer Price Index and 5.9% increase in Core CPI...

Here we stand with half of 2022 in the rear-view mirror. Typically, I prepare a full length ‘My Gut Feeling for 2022’ to begin the year. However, given our issues with relaunching the LakeView website, I was unable to do...

WHAT SHOULD WE EXPECT FROM THE FOMC TODAY? Today the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee or FOMC will be releasing the decision of its voting members as to changes in Monetary Policy. It is almost unanimous amongst economic analysts...

Economic and finance are behavioral sciences, which rely on quantitative analysis as a basis of forming opinions. In the current economic environment, there appears to be ignorance which drives dysfunctional behavior. Let me lay out a...

It’s hard to believe that 20 years ago I launched, with the help of family and friends my registered investment advisory business, LakeView Asset Management. At the time, our oldest of five children, with my beautiful wife Layni,...

I have been in this business an exceptionally long time, all but the early years of my post-college professional career when I worked at Price Waterhouse. Every time we have a major sell-off as we are now engaged in, there is a moment...

The current market is more representative of the Invasion of Kuwait. Growth investors do not want to panic and should look forward to new highs in the future.

It has been several months since I was able to publish My Gut Feeling, but now I’m back. There are a few reasons as to why I was on the sidelines, as it relates to writing - but not managing money, for which I have been as active...

It’s a Fake World I can remember walking down the streets in Manhattan with street vendors selling fake Burberry scarfs, fake Rolex watches and fake sports team apparel. They had a catch phrase for those products ...

Normally “My Gut Feeling” is where I espouse my thoughts on the markets and economy with clients, family, client hopefuls and the media. Today however, LakeView Asset Management has some important announcements that I will...

One of my biggest fears heading into 2021, as I wrote in My Gut Feeling For 2021 was economic stagflation. Furthermore, I was fearful of surging energy prices from 1) cancellation of the Keystone XL pipeline project and 2) an...

Sixty years ago today, my grandfather, father, uncle, and first cousin were watching the Yankee game in the family home on Miller Ave. in Brooklyn. Yogi Berra hit a home run as Ralph Terry bettered Jim Perry and the Cleveland Indians...

I know that it has been about a month since I last published “My Gut Feeling” and plenty has taken place in the financial markets over that course of time. Behind the scenes at LakeView Asset Management, plenty is also...

In a unanimous decision, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the arbiter of monetary policy, in no uncertain terms left interest rates unchanged. Furthermore, the FOMC stated that: “Inflation continues to run below 2 percent;”...

Last week just about every asset class sold off – Bonds, Growth Stocks, Value Stocks (with some exceptions), Crude Oil and, not to be left out Bitcoin (or in general cybercurrencies). Some asset classes got hit harder than others. It...

In the first installment of this two-part discussion discussing what is occurring in the netherworld of short selling, I discussed the mechanics behind a short sale. Now in the second installment, I will discuss what happened two weeks...

What’s Going On? In all honesty, last week, I wanted to write about the latest hot topic on Wall Street which was the short squeeze perpetuated by some traders gathered on the website Reddit who traded primarily though a popular small...

Those many tailwinds which I discussed in My Gut Feeling For 2020 – USMCA, China trade agreement, failed impeachment, and Boris Johnson’s election – that were present as the year began turned to headwinds. First came COVID and all the...

As 2020 began, I published My Gut Feeling For 2020. Now that 2020 is in the books, I wanted to look back at how my expectations and predictions fared in 2020. Recall these predictions were made in the spirit of the old Wall Street Week...

Every year since 2002, I have closed out the year with my satirical look at the world through the eyes of a professional investor/writer poking fun at what has transpired in our global society during the year about to end. 2020 was the...

As I discussed in my last installment of My Gut Feeling, you were going to have a golden opportunity to sell vaccine related trades when the first person was administered a COVID injection. That occurred on Monday. And, to no surprise,...

I was prepared to write an installment of My Gut Feeling (MGF) in time for Thanksgiving, but I had my hands full with the LakeView office renovation. So far, the walls were painted, and new floors were installed.  So, I moved my...

The national elections have taken place. Politically, it appears that expectations for a “Scenario 2” outcome is most likely – Joe Biden winning the White House and the Republicans holding the Senate. There are some...

As expected, in the month of September, the markets experienced their first significant correction since those dire days of the beginning of the COVID-19 crisis. This correction especially hit the red-hot growth technology stocks the...

Professionals often say that in bull markets, stocks go up on an escalator and fall in an elevator. By that we mean that stocks will rise gently and then pullbacks are sharp and swift. That is exactly what occurred last week.Last...

Growing up, I recall watching several kids shows produced or designed by Sid & Marty Kroftt. There was Land of the Lost, H.R. Pufnstuf and of course The Banana Splits, to name a few. All of them were silly shows, nevertheless...

I have taken some time off from writing for many good reasons. I have been working twice as hard these past two to three months to concentrate more time and energy on LakeView Asset Management and client accounts. The need to do more...

In my 36 years in this business, I have never experienced the type of tumultuous behavior in financial markets as we have undergone in March and April of 2020. I am expecting that May will bring some stability to markets; though it did...

Financial markets around the globe are suffering from a bad case of leptokurtosis. This is not a viral disease but a statistical condition. Leptokurtosis is what is known as “fat-tailed” returns. Put another way, market...

When winter turns to spring, we look for green shoots of plants and grass to emerge as a welcoming to the new season of growth. For financial markets when we have suffered an economic winter, we look for green shoots as a sign of...

The markets have caught a flu of their own. While I have quarantined myself in front of my computer console battling the market’s woes, I have also had the opportunity to speak to many of you on an individual basis as to my...

Let me begin by thanking all of you who read my last My Gut Feeling on Deconstructing the Correction as it was the most opened and most read My Gut Feeling of all time. Furthermore, thank you for sharing that commentary on...

The entire process, from the time I begin to compose My Gut Feeling to when I send out that email which you receive, takes three to four hours. Since the equity markets began to cascade lower on Monday February 24, I set out to write...

The big question last week was: “Was That THE Bottom?” The reason that I look for A Bottom and THE Bottom is that after a dramatic panic sell-off and rebound, sometimes a reversal of the rebound, or a retest of the panic...

For all the market volatility and hysteria with the Kinahora virus, January has been a good month for the equity markets. I call it the Kinahora virus for a good reason. Kinahora in Yiddish means “not to cast the evil eye.”...

It has been nearly six years since the Ebola scare in the fall of 2014. Recall that 1) early-mid October that year, we had a nasty panic driven sell-off in the markets and 2) we were all supposed to die from Ebola as it was destined to...

We have an expression in my business that “trees don’t grow to the sky.” With the exception of perhaps Jack’s beanstalk; that is true. What the expression means to say is that stocks can’t rise too far...

Another year has come and gone. 2019 was a breakout year for the US economy and global stock markets.  Heading into last year, investors and analysts were guarded given the Federal Reserve’s blunder in 2018’s fourth...

As 2019 began, I published My Gut Feeling For 2019. Now that 2019 is in the books, I want to look back at how my expectations and predictions fared in 2019. Recall these predictions were made in the spirit of the...