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Thursday, April 4, 2024

Japan in the 1980s had a stock market that was the global darling. In 1986, the Tokyo Stock Exchange granted membership to six non-Japanese “gaijin” firm. Morgan Stanley, for which I worked at the time, was one of those firms...

Tuesday, March 26, 2024

Adobe (ADBE) reported its first quarter 2024 earnings on March 13th. The company reported $5.18 billion in revenue, coming in slightly above analyst expectations of $5.15 billion. In addition to...

Tuesday, February 20, 2024

In every decade there is a stock which is the fulcrum for which the stock market direction is determined. In the 1980s that stock was International Business Machines (IBM) better known as IBM or “Big Blue.” In the 1990s,...

Wednesday, February 14, 2024

Since bottoming at the end of October, the Standard & Poor’s 500 (SPX) rose approximately 22%, over the milestone 5,000 level at the end of last week. Now, after a fantastic run, you knew that some profit taking would take place....

Tuesday, February 6, 2024

Netflix Anonymous: My name is Carly, and yes, I am a Netflix freeloader. Recently, I have fallen victim to Netflix’s (NFLX) 2023 password sharing crackdown and as a consumer, I am not happy about it. However, I am no longer just...

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Monday, January 29, 2024

Tesla (TSLA) is a darling stock for the Electric Vehicle (EV) crowd. I have followed this stock, and to a lesser extent Elon Musk for many years. Prior to buying the stock in 2020, I actually traded some convertible bonds in TSLA. Our...

Tuesday, January 9, 2024

2024 will mark my 40th year on Wall Street. I started out at Morgan Stanley (NY, Tokyo, and Hong Kong), County Nat West (NY and London), Merrill Lynch and then since 2002 at the helm of my own firm, LakeView Asset Management. Just a...

Tuesday, January 2, 2024

As 2023 began, I published My Gut Feeling For 2023. Now that 2023 is in the books, I wanted to look back at how my expectations and predictions fared in 2023. Recall these predictions were made in the spirit of the old Wall Street Week...

Tuesday, December 26, 2023

It has been almost two years since the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) began raising interest rates. The goal? To ease inflation and temper the consumer. The reality? Frustrated millennials were priced out of home buying, housing...

Thursday, December 21, 2023

Every year since 2002, except for 2021, I have closed out the year with my satirical look at the world through the eyes of a professional investor/writer poking fun at what has transpired in our global society during the year about to...

Tuesday, December 5, 2023

It’s been a fantastic year so far for investors, at least our investors at LakeView Asset Management. The cherry on top of the cake was November’s bull run. During that month, the major indexes...

Saturday, November 11, 2023

At its November meeting, which ended last week, November 1 to be precise, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to leave interest rates unchanged. While normally issuing a perplexing post decision meeting press...

Thursday, October 19, 2023

Photo by Saad Chaudhry on Unsplash I know that many of you would want a few words about what is going on in Israel. Let me save that for later. First, let me turn to Apple (AAPL). Technology earnings are coming up and there are a few...

Wednesday, October 4, 2023

Let me begin by saying that the past few weeks have been hectic beyond the normal craziness that I deal with in this business when markets are open. As a result, the time I normally spend on writing and publishing My Gut Feeling...

Monday, August 21, 2023

After a spectacular rise this year for the major equity indexes, we have experienced a correction in August. This begs the question: Why? I have several theories, which I believe have all contributed in some part to the August pullback...

Monday, July 31, 2023

August is well known for the thoroughbred racing season at the historic track in Saratoga Springs. Since 1982 I have been meeting friends from Camp Echo (in Warrensburg, NY) at the track in “our spot” near the Big Red...

Wednesday, July 12, 2023

The market as with life has its ups and downs. You must learn to take the downs with the ups. Certainly, the past four years with the COVID Pandemic and failed economic policies leading to multi-decade high inflation has been an...

Tuesday, June 13, 2023

Last year, growth stocks got hit with the ugly stick as we say on Wall Street and plummeted due to rising inflation and interest rates. While we expected a pullback, the rapidity and magnitude of the sell-off was unforeseen, except by...

Wednesday, May 17, 2023

One of my favorite movies of all time is “Charade” which was released when I was 2 years old, but I first watched it in the 1980s. It has without a doubt one of the finest casts of all-time: Audrey Hepburn, Cary Grant,...

Tuesday, May 2, 2023

In the late 1960s, during cultural times protesting the Vietnam War, a rock musical by the name of Hair: The American Tribal Love-Rock Musical (commonly referred to as “Hair”) was running on Broadway. In that musical was a...

Monday, March 13, 2023

On Thursday, the markets appeared to be performing well, until two events unfolded. The first was the introduction by the White House for a new budget. What spooked investors in the budget, even though it was likely not to become law,...

Tuesday, March 7, 2023

We have a busy economic calendar these next two weeks – both data releases, testimony and an FOMC decision.Let’s begin with a review of the first two months of this year. January and the early part of February began on...

Monday, January 30, 2023

For those of you too young to recognize the name, or perhaps are not a connoisseur of baseball, Hoyt Wilhelm was a relief pitcher in the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s who was elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame in 1985. He specialized in...

Monday, January 9, 2023

2022 was without a doubt a horrible year for the financial markets. If the late Queen Elizabeth were writing this MGF she would describe 2022 as an “annus horriblus.” For the markets, Growth / Tech stocks got hit hard. The...

Friday, December 23, 2022

Every year since 2002, except for 2021, I have closed out the year with my satirical look at the world through the eyes of a professional investor/writer poking fun at what has transpired in our global society during the year about to...

Tuesday, November 15, 2022

It was made official on Friday that Cryptocurrency exchange, FTX would be filling for bankruptcy. All the details are yet to become public but a few things that we know is that FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried has resigned, he leveraged...

Friday, October 28, 2022

Historically, according to my research, going back to 1950, in the 16-quarter election cycle, the best performing quarter is that of the fourth quarter of the mid-term election year and the second-best quarter is that of the following quart

Thursday, September 22, 2022

On the first day of Economics class as a Freshman at The Wharton School of Business, Prof. Levine wrote on the big chalkboard in a lecture hall full of about 200 other students: Y = C + I + G. (It was too early to introduce X –...

Monday, September 12, 2022

After a nice rebound in the stock market, in terms of the S&P 500 (SPX) from mid-June to mid-August of about 17%, we appeared to hit a brick wall in mid-August and fell just over 9% through September 6 after which buyers stepped back...

Wednesday, August 17, 2022

When I wrote last, I outlined the earnings and economic calendar that the markets were about to face. It was, as I described to my daughter Carly, Stock Market Hell Week. We had a slew of corporate earnings reports...

Monday, July 25, 2022

The markets are set to experience a busy and volatile week. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will be meeting and making another decision as to its monetary stance. All indications are that a Fed Funds rate hike of 75 basis...

Friday, July 15, 2022

BUYERS STEPPING UP Green Shoot #1 - Wednesday’s report of 9.1% year-over-year increase in the Consumer Price Index and 5.9% increase in Core CPI...

Thursday, July 7, 2022

Here we stand with half of 2022 in the rear-view mirror. Typically, I prepare a full length ‘My Gut Feeling for 2022’ to begin the year. However, given our issues with relaunching the LakeView website, I was unable to do...

Wednesday, June 15, 2022

WHAT SHOULD WE EXPECT FROM THE FOMC TODAY? Today the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee or FOMC will be releasing the decision of its voting members as to changes in Monetary Policy. It is almost unanimous amongst economic analysts...

Wednesday, June 8, 2022

Economic and finance are behavioral sciences, which rely on quantitative analysis as a basis of forming opinions. In the current economic environment, there appears to be ignorance which drives dysfunctional behavior. Let me lay out a...

Tuesday, May 17, 2022

It’s hard to believe that 20 years ago I launched, with the help of family and friends my registered investment advisory business, LakeView Asset Management. At the time, our oldest of five children, with my beautiful wife Layni,...

Tuesday, May 10, 2022

I have been in this business an exceptionally long time, all but the early years of my post-college professional career when I worked at Price Waterhouse. Every time we have a major sell-off as we are now engaged in, there is a moment...

Thursday, April 28, 2022

The current market is more representative of the Invasion of Kuwait. Growth investors do not want to panic and should look forward to new highs in the future.

Wednesday, April 20, 2022

It has been several months since I was able to publish My Gut Feeling, but now I’m back. There are a few reasons as to why I was on the sidelines, as it relates to writing - but not managing money, for which I have been as active...

Tuesday, July 27, 2021

It’s a Fake World I can remember walking down the streets in Manhattan with street vendors selling fake Burberry scarfs, fake Rolex watches and fake sports team apparel. They had a catch phrase for those products ...

Thursday, July 1, 2021

Normally “My Gut Feeling” is where I espouse my thoughts on the markets and economy with clients, family, client hopefuls and the media. Today however, LakeView Asset Management has some important announcements that I will...

Thursday, May 13, 2021

One of my biggest fears heading into 2021, as I wrote in My Gut Feeling For 2021 was economic stagflation. Furthermore, I was fearful of surging energy prices from 1) cancellation of the Keystone XL pipeline project and 2) an...

Thursday, April 29, 2021

Sixty years ago today, my grandfather, father, uncle, and first cousin were watching the Yankee game in the family home on Miller Ave. in Brooklyn. Yogi Berra hit a home run as Ralph Terry bettered Jim Perry and the Cleveland Indians...

Monday, April 19, 2021

I know that it has been about a month since I last published “My Gut Feeling” and plenty has taken place in the financial markets over that course of time. Behind the scenes at LakeView Asset Management, plenty is also...

Wednesday, March 17, 2021

Monday, March 1, 2021

Thursday, February 11, 2021

Sunday, January 31, 2021

Friday, January 22, 2021

Wednesday, January 6, 2021

Thursday, December 24, 2020

Every year since 2002, I have closed out the year with my satirical look at the world through the eyes of a professional investor/writer poking fun at what has transpired in our global society during the year about to end. 2020 was the...

Thursday, December 17, 2020

As I discussed in my last installment of My Gut Feeling, you were going to have a golden opportunity to sell vaccine related trades when the first person was administered a COVID injection. That occurred on Monday. And, to no surprise,...

Tuesday, December 8, 2020

I was prepared to write an installment of My Gut Feeling (MGF) in time for Thanksgiving, but I had my hands full with the LakeView office renovation. So far, the walls were painted, and new floors were installed.  So, I moved my...

Monday, November 9, 2020

The national elections have taken place. Politically, it appears that expectations for a “Scenario 2” outcome is most likely – Joe Biden winning the White House and the Republicans holding the Senate. There are some...

Wednesday, October 14, 2020

As expected, in the month of September, the markets experienced their first significant correction since those dire days of the beginning of the COVID-19 crisis. This correction especially hit the red-hot growth technology stocks the...

Tuesday, September 8, 2020

Professionals often say that in bull markets, stocks go up on an escalator and fall in an elevator. By that we mean that stocks will rise gently and then pullbacks are sharp and swift. That is exactly what occurred last week.Last...

Monday, August 31, 2020

Growing up, I recall watching several kids shows produced or designed by Sid & Marty Kroftt. There was Land of the Lost, H.R. Pufnstuf and of course The Banana Splits, to name a few. All of them were silly shows, nevertheless...

Thursday, July 23, 2020

I have taken some time off from writing for many good reasons. I have been working twice as hard these past two to three months to concentrate more time and energy on LakeView Asset Management and client accounts. The need to do more...

Monday, May 4, 2020

In my 36 years in this business, I have never experienced the type of tumultuous behavior in financial markets as we have undergone in March and April of 2020. I am expecting that May will bring some stability to markets; though it did...

Thursday, April 30, 2020

Financial markets around the globe are suffering from a bad case of leptokurtosis. This is not a viral disease but a statistical condition. Leptokurtosis is what is known as “fat-tailed” returns. Put another way, market...

Wednesday, April 15, 2020

When winter turns to spring, we look for green shoots of plants and grass to emerge as a welcoming to the new season of growth. For financial markets when we have suffered an economic winter, we look for green shoots as a sign of...

Monday, April 13, 2020

The markets have caught a flu of their own. While I have quarantined myself in front of my computer console battling the market’s woes, I have also had the opportunity to speak to many of you on an individual basis as to my...

Monday, March 9, 2020

Let me begin by thanking all of you who read my last My Gut Feeling on Deconstructing the Correction as it was the most opened and most read My Gut Feeling of all time. Furthermore, thank you for sharing that commentary on...

Friday, March 6, 2020

The entire process, from the time I begin to compose My Gut Feeling to when I send out that email which you receive, takes three to four hours. Since the equity markets began to cascade lower on Monday February 24, I set out to write...

Thursday, February 6, 2020

The big question last week was: “Was That THE Bottom?” The reason that I look for A Bottom and THE Bottom is that after a dramatic panic sell-off and rebound, sometimes a reversal of the rebound, or a retest of the panic...

Friday, January 31, 2020

For all the market volatility and hysteria with the Kinahora virus, January has been a good month for the equity markets. I call it the Kinahora virus for a good reason. Kinahora in Yiddish means “not to cast the evil eye.”...

Sunday, January 26, 2020

It has been nearly six years since the Ebola scare in the fall of 2014. Recall that 1) early-mid October that year, we had a nasty panic driven sell-off in the markets and 2) we were all supposed to die from Ebola as it was destined to...

Tuesday, January 21, 2020

We have an expression in my business that “trees don’t grow to the sky.” With the exception of perhaps Jack’s beanstalk; that is true. What the expression means to say is that stocks can’t rise too far...

Thursday, January 9, 2020

Another year has come and gone. 2019 was a breakout year for the US economy and global stock markets.  Heading into last year, investors and analysts were guarded given the Federal Reserve’s blunder in 2018’s fourth...

Sunday, January 5, 2020

As 2019 began, I published My Gut Feeling For 2019. Now that 2019 is in the books, I want to look back at how my expectations and predictions fared in 2019. Recall these predictions were made in the spirit of the...

Thursday, January 1, 2015

My Gut Feeling For Today, December 28, 2015: The Force Awakens – In the Theaters Not the MarketThe bipolar market activity continued over the past two weeks. Two weeks ago, following the FOMC decision, in light of ever lower...

Thursday, November 20, 2014

10 Things I Won't Miss About 2014Every year since 2002 I have closed out the year with my satirical look at the world through the eyes of a professional investor poking fun at what has transpired in our global society during the year...