September Was Not So Bad for the Markets
We made it through the Jewish High Holidays, the end of Summer, the assassination of Charlie Kirk, much of the Major League Baseball Playoffs (the Toronto Blue Jays face the Los Angeles Dodgers beginning Friday in the World Series) and that worst month of all for stocks, September. So where do we stand as I write?
In September, the Standard & Poor’s 500 (SPX) rose 3.53% (as calculated from publicly available data on Yahoo Finance) and the world has not ended. In fact it has gained more ground in October, despite the recent volatility (see below). However, there are some dastardly folks who wish to take down your portfolios along the way. Here is a list of things that you may be hearing and need to better understand.
Don’t Be Fooled By What You Hear in October.
Be aware, there are people who make their money scaring the average investor. Don’t be sucked into those traps. I know how to decipher the news and will provide some insight as we close out October before the heart of earnings season is set to commence.
- We Are In A Bubble – this is a warning sign from people who think that we are about to experience another tech bust, such as one that began in 1999. This tends to be wishful thinking by many people who have experienced the fear of missing out on the current bull market and need a market crash to put their wads of money to work. Furthermore, all the metrics which were screaming a tech bubble in 1999 are not apparent now.
- The Bots are Back to Work – Bots are computerized trading robots which scan the world wide web for news. The Bots buy when the news is good and sell when the news is bad. Their impact on the market is only exacerbated by AI (Artificial Intelligence). When Bots go to work, their impact is felt immediately and tends to be magnified but does not have much staying power. For example, recently President Trump announced that he was raising tariffs with China another 100%. The bots went to work. However, I don’t know of a single portfolio manager who took the news seriously and sold into the news. That was a good thing because once the news was a day old, it was forgotten and buyers stepping in to take advantage of cheaper prices.
- The Markets Are at All-Time Highs, so Sell Sell Sell – Well the major indexes are at or near all-time highs, but not all stocks are. Furthermore, if you sold every time the market hit a new high, you would be holding a lot of cash right now and missed opportunities along the way. Look, there is plenty of cash looking for a home and the US Stock market is like a magnet to cash. We will hit a point at which valuations are too stretched but we are not there now.
- Markets Are Exhibiting Volatility – there is some truth to that as I am seeing the market churning – opening higher and closing lower or vice versa. However, volatility is not necessarily a four-letter word. During the 2008-09 Financial Crisis, volatility was excessive as the market took a big dive. That was bad volatility. However, day to day volatility is actually good as it acts as a mechanism to absorb overbought market conditions. Hence, we are experiencing the good not the bad volatility right now.
- Gold and Silver Are at All-Time Highs – Set aside the steep fall that these commodities had yesterday. Metals prices are rising for good reasons. There are industrial needs for metals and shortages create a supply-demand imbalance, pushing prices higher. I bought some Granite Shares Platinum Trust (PLTM) which invests in Platinum. Platinum is not a metal on the minds of most people, but it will be in my opinion.
- The Government Shut Down – this is the biggest bit of bearish fool’s gold. Government shutdowns may affect certain industries and government employees but will not take down the economy. We have had numerous government shutdowns over many decades and survived to tell the tale.
We must go through the ups and downs of earnings season. So far, the multinational banks have fared well while their smaller relatives the regional banks have not. Netflix (NFLX) announced its results last night and despite providing strong forward guidance, delivered a disappointing quarter as a result of some foreign tax issues. We have owned NFLX in our Growth and Consumer Discretionary Portfolio for some time now at much lower prices. Recently however, we took some of the NFLX positions off the table as we did not like the way the stock was trading. We are not going to totally divest of our NFLX holdings but could foresee further trimming of the positions.
Lastly, next week the FOMC meets for a two-day meeting. The markets expect another 25-basis point cut.
______________________________________________________________________________
Disclosure: At the time of this commentary Scott Rothbort, his family and/or clients of LakeView Asset Management, LLC, own NFLX and PLTM, although positions can change at any time. The mention of stocks are not recommendations and may not be suitable investments for your individual situation.
The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of the author, and may not actually come to pass. This information is subject to change at any time, based on market and other conditions and should not be construed as a recommendation of any specific security or investment plan. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Scott Rothbort is the President & Founder of LakeView Asset Management, LLC, (LVAM) an investment advisor representative, specializing in high-net-worth private wealth management. LVAM is a separate entity of Osaic Advisory Services, LLC, a registered investment advisor.
For more information on investing with LakeView Asset Management, LLC call us at 702-749-9343 or request more information by clicking on the contact button on the top right-hand corner of the website or by emailing Scott at scott@lakeviewasset.com or Carly at carly@lakeviewasset.com. LakeView Management, LLC is a Nevada LLC, with its principal office located in Henderson, NV and branch office located in Millburn, NJ
© 2025 LakeView Asset Management, LLC. All rights reserved.