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I know it has been some time since I last wrote but thought now would be an appropriate time as ever as this season is all about the consumer. Following the feast, the ever-anticipated Black Friday crept up fast, and Americans were ready for it.
Over the past few years, since the pandemic, we have seen Black Friday & Cyber Monday deals increasingly begin earlier and end later. It has become more of a week long shopping “spree”. This year, stores like Target (TGT), Lowe’s Home Improvement (LOW), and Kohl’s (KSS) to name a few, attempted to drum up in-store Black Friday traffic and excitement again by offering exclusive grab bags to the first X amount of people. But does anyone really want to get up at the crack of dawn to wait out in the cold to be the first in line for lackluster deals? For some, yes, there is a nostalgic aspect to the Black Friday traditions, but for many, shopping at home online where you can target the best deals is still an ongoing fan favorite. To Target’s dismay, their disappointing goody bag of junk left shoppers extremely angry, prompting outrage and negative viral videos on TikTok. Perhaps just their half-decent deals would have been better than their failed garbage-I mean grab-bags. Lowe’s came out the big winner with a prize with a price tag of $2,000 worth of home appliances to one lucky winner at each participating store.
Back when Scott was a Finance Professor in New Jersey, he would take a group of students to the Palisades Mall to do field research. My mom would bring me and some siblings there to mostly pick out what we wanted for Hannukah and have some treats. That was before Amazon (AMZN) built out its business forcing Walmart’s (WMT) hand to acquire Jet.com and fend off Amazon’s rapid expansion. While the website Jet.com no longer exists, its technology was incorporated into WMT’s online shopping experience.
Artificial Intelligence
According to Adobe’s (ADBE) 2025 Holiday Shopping data, $11.8 billion was spent on Black Friday and a whopping $14.25 billion on Cyber Monday. Consumer spending this holiday season has reached $254.4 billion, up from last year’s $241.1 billion, up 5.3% year-over-year. But what has truly been the game-changer for BFCM (Black Friday Cyber Monday) shopping? To no one’s surprise, Artificial Intelligence (AI). AI is changing how consumers shop for themselves and others. According to Adobe, there was a 758% year-over-year increase in AI referral traffic to retail stores. That is up about 515-520% from the 2024 holiday season. A reported 95% purchase satisfaction rate was reported for AI recommendations. Those are some impressive numbers and a very good indicator that AI is continuing to grow in popularity and sophistication.
What was it that consumers were using AI for? To gather information and insight into product recommendations, deal finding, general research and gift ideation for that stubborn uncle you can never find anything for. Not to mention, during the holiday season, AI is a great tool to help find that perfect recipe to bring to Aunt Sally’s holiday dinner that is easy to make.
With that said, GEO (Generative Engine Optimization) is the new SEO. Companies have now shifted their optimization to ensuring AI search engines can discover their brand, products, and websites. Making your content easily readable by machines is the new focus going forward. This not only helps vendors price their products more competitively but also shoppers as they are increasingly able to make their price discovery process faster and a greater level of aplomb.
At this point, if you have not yet adopted AI as a brand, company or a consumer, you have already fallen behind. This year, LakeView adopted an AI notetaker called Jump. Approved by Osaic’s compliance department, we have found it to be a pivotal factor in our ability to grow, just a few months into the program’s launch. The program is able to distill the information discussed and create detailed notes within minutes. This program has allowed us to be more efficient with our time, while staying compliant with the ever-changing compliance landscape of the financial world.
Buy Now, Pay Later
Increasingly, consumers have become more price conscious and more cautious with their money. Wanting to ensure they are spending their money on quality products; while getting the deepest discount possible, consumers are increasingly relying on referrals that are not just AI. Reddit, Inc. (RDDT), which went IPO in early 2024, was reported to be the fastest-growing social media platform for retail referrals, according to Adobe.
Personally, I waited just about all year to buy myself one of SharkNinja’s (SN) hottest products, the Ninja Luxe Café at a decent price. As the years have gone on, I’ve noticed buying directly from company’s site can sometimes yield you the best deal. Take the Ninja Luxe Café for example; I received an additional 10% off the already 17% discounted price on Black Friday along with a bundle of over $150 worth of accessories. Not to mention, I hit that handy dandy browser extension for Rakuten Cash back and received an extra 12% cash back. Being as I am analytic, I spent months researching the product, reading reviews on Reddit and YouTube (owned by GOOGL) so that when the time came, I was ready to pull the trigger. Because of my savvy shopping and research, I got almost $750 worth of product for a whopping $400 (not including Uncle Sam’s cut of course). I am happy to report, I have never had a better cup of coffee at home than I did this morning. The deals are there; they just require a little bit of work and are no longer as in-your-face, door-busting as they used to be. Here is another shopping hint: use extensions like Rakuten or Honey to get some extra cash back and check websites like CamelCamelCamel.com to see recent price changes to evaluate if the perceived “deal” is really a deal.
Nonetheless, I personally felt the BFCM deals were unimpressive compared to previous years. Most of these deals can be found almost anywhere that sells that product. It is what the individual retail stores offer in addition to the sale that is make or break. With various opportunities to shop AMZN Prime Days and Target’s Cyber Week sales, the competitive pricing was not so competitive for everything.
Consumers may be still feeling the effects of past years’ inflation and are adjusting to the transitional impact of tariffs, but that has not stopped them from shopping. Increasingly, consumers are relying instead on buy-now-pay-later programs (BNPL) like Klarna (KLAR) and Affirm (AFRM) to still make all their holiday purchases but pay over a longer period. Adobe forecasts $20.2 billion of BNPL purchases this holiday season. An almost 11% year-over-year increase from 2024. Consumers may have gotten all the gifts they wanted to, but they certainly are taking on debt in order to do so. While there was a reported increase in spending, there was a decrease in volume of products sold, indicating consumers are waiting to spend on bigger ticket items of quality, over quantity of items.
Consumers are shopping in a more systematic manner, rather than a chaotic one-day frenzy. Goodbye impulsivity, hello value calculations. While we still want to spend, it is clear the average consumer wants to do so in a way that is convenient, and responsible while we shoulder the burden of embedded historic price inflation and tariffs a while longer. Not to mention, “deals” are not really “deals” anymore.
I will tell you something we missed, namely the impact that Sydney Sweeney would have on the profitability of American Eagle Outfitters (AEO). Since there was so much controversy on those ads, we avoided AEO. It’s a woulda- coulda-shoulda moment that we can’t dwell on. We may get a second chance at AEO and will keep our eye on it but now is not the time. My mom remarked that Sydney Sweeney is the modern-day version of Brooke Shields 1980s “Me and My Calvins”.
Feel free to reach out with some of your favorite deals this holiday season, we want to hear from you and share in your big wins! Scott and I wish you all a very happy holiday season and a healthy and prosperous New Year.
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Disclosure: At the time of this commentary, Carly Rothbort, her family and/or clients of LakeView Asset Management, LLC, own AMZN, GOOGL, RDDT, & WMT, although positions can change at any time. The mention of stocks are not recommendations and may not be suitable investments for your individual situation.
Carly Rothbort is the Vice President of LakeView Asset Management, LLC, (LVAM) an investment advisor representative, specializing in high-net-worth private wealth management. LVAM is a separate entity of Osaic Advisory Services, LLC, a registered investment advisor.
For more information on investing with LakeView Asset Management, LLC call us at 702-749-9343 or request more information by clicking on the contact button on the top right-hand corner of the website or by emailing Scott at scott@lakeviewasset.com or Carly at carly@lakeviewasset.com. LakeView Asset Management, LLC is a Nevada LLC, with its principal office located in Henderson, NV and branch offices located in Millburn, NJ and Sands Point, NY.
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