Photo by Ricardo Gomez Angel on Unsplash
The Last Month
Since I last checked in, it has been a busy month. I made my westward migration to Nevada, though I am headed back east for a few weeks soon on business and pleasure.
To begin, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) cut interest rates by 50 basis points (1/2%) which I think was too much too soon. As you know I was expecting 25 basis points (1/4%). While I disagree with the FOMC (not the first time under this Chairman), what’s done is done. Now, they are backed into a corner when it comes to the next two meetings, so as not to have appeared politically motivated.
Israel was bombarded by Iran (for a second time) and Hezbollah but have successfully retaliated since. At first, there were jitters of a more extensive regional war. However, that seems to have dissipated as nearly all of Hamas was destroyed and its newest leader Yahya Sinwar was killed. I would also mention that the Jewish High Holidays (which has a few days left to go) passed without any major escalation on the scale of last year’s horrific October 7 massacre. The biggest hiccup for my family was the simultaneous failure of our oven and dishwasher on the eve of Yom Kippur.
The big players on Wall Street, and the market in general appears to be pricing in a victory for Donald Trump in the upcoming election. Early voting has begun in several states already, including Nevada in which we are going to vote today. Turnout has been surprisingly positive so far this year. The downside is that if he does not win, the markets will get hit hard. Polling is now swinging toward Donald Trump and away from Kamala Harris, but that could change, and I don’t trust polling.
So, with all that said, what have I been doing with our portfolios? I am still heavily weighted toward Artificial Intelligence (AI) investments, across all strategies, including having what many people don’t think of as pure plays in AI. Those pure plays are in the semi-conductor sector, such as Nvidia (NVDA). For over a year, I have invested in second tier or derivative AI plays such as Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) which reported a stellar quarter last week. My only disappointment was that the company did not report a stock split with the stock at new highs over $500/share. We have a few more such derivative AI investments.
Harvesting Gains
I have been doing some fall harvesting of gains in several stocks, a little from NVDA, a little from Netflix (NFLX) – which also had a great quarter - and a little here and there. I’ve put some of the cash raised into a few post-hurricane plays. One stock that I buy for a trade after a bad hurricane season is Travelers (TRV). Insurers such as TRV always have a large reserve built in for hurricanes but always manage to increase their premiums post-hurricanes. In other words, they have a win-win formula. I have also bought a construction play, on top of our existing long-term investment in Marathon Petroleum (MPC), which began as a dividend play many years ago. Furthermore, I put a small allocation into the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD). With another big year for our Growth Portfolio, it does not hurt to tuck a little bit of our assets into gold.
Had you received a tender offer for Blackrock Health Science (BMEZ), just ignore it. It’s a dividend holding and not worth the effort to tender.
The World Series
It became final last night. The New York Yankees will meet the Los Angeles Dodgers in the 2024 World Series. It will be a rematch of such contests since the Dodgers moved to the City of Angels. As it turned out, all these World Series took place during my lifetime with the Yankees winning in 1977 and 1978 and the Dodgers winning in 1963 and 1981. 1981 was a weird strike shortened season. Here is a nice synopsis of the Yankee – Dodger World Series history, including those while the Trolley Dodgers were still in my hometown of Brooklyn. While I am biased toward the Yankees, I have to say that on paper, this is a remarkably close match-up. The only factor tipping the Dodgers favor is that four of the seven games are scheduled to be played in LA.
However, I must remind everyone of Reggie Jackson’s 1977 heroic feat hitting three homeruns on three consecutive pitches in the 1977classic. That last one went to the “black” in the old Yankee Stadium. This year there are four players who could match that feat: Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto and Giancarlo Stanton.
My last wish is to see Thurman Munson in the Hall of Fame.
__________________________________________________________________
Disclosure: At the time of this commentary Scott Rothbort, his family and/or clients of LakeView Asset Management, LLC were long BMEZ, GLD, ISRG, MPC, NFLX, NVDA, and TRV, although positions may change at any time. The mention of a stock is not a recommendation and may not be a suitable investment for your individual situation.
Scott Rothbort is the President & Founder of LakeView Asset Management, LLC, (LVAM) an investment advisor representative, specializing in high-net-worth private wealth management. LVAM is a separate entity of Osaic Advisory Services, LLC, a registered investment advisor.
For more information on investing with LakeView Asset Management, LLC call us at 702-749-9343 or request more information by clicking on the contact button on the top right-hand corner of the website or by emailing Scott at scott@lakeviewasset.com or Carly at carly@lakeviewasset.com. LakeView Management, LLC is a Nevada LLC, with its principal office located in Henderson, NV and branch office located in Millburn, NJ
© 2024 LakeView Asset Management, LLC. All rights reserved.