The 12-day War
Let me preface this commentary by letting you know how proud our family was of Carly. As some of you may have already been aware, earlier last month Carly took a group of Las Vegans (is that the correct term?) to Israel representing the Bachman Foundation for what was supposed to be a short exchange program with a community called Ramat HaNegev, only to be caught in Israel during the 12-day war with Iran. In typical fashion, she did not allow the incoming missiles or having to run to and from a bomb shelter on many occasions to break her resolve. Of course, her parents were worried sick over what she was going through. After President Donald Trump dropped bombs on the Iranian nuclear facilities, made possible by wave after wave of Israeli air attacks, Carly was able to finally leave Israel via Cyprus and then Athens before making it home to the USA. With Carly’s absence, I was working double shifts, concentrating on managing investments and focusing on client needs. That was one reason for me not writing My Gut Feeling in June, but we are now back in full gear.
Now onto some financial commentary.
Second Half Volatility
Below is a chart of how the S&P 500 Index (SPX) performed so far for 2025 through June 30.
As you can see, we experienced a scary drop in April after Pres. Trump’s so-called “Liberation Day”. It was a quick (and scary) decline in the SPX. The Index bottomed on April 7th and then mounted a spectacular rebound to new highs for the Index. As I believed strongly, this was just a negotiating tactic which so far has paid off. Billions of dollars are streaming into the US Treasury from tariff collection. Tariff agreements are continually being made. Fear of a recession and inflation was spread by much of the press, but we know that they cannot be relied on to provide unbiased commentary.
So, what did we do? Well during April we raised some cash and then redeployed that cash once a bottom was forming. All told, our three equity strategies: Growth, Dividend Value, and Consumer not only stood at healthy gains by June 30 but also bettered their respective benchmarks. While I cannot quote specifics in this commentary, we can and are reviewing account with individual clients upon their request. Feel free to contact Carly or myself if you want to review accounts or want to open a new relationship with LakeView Asset Management. I am also proud to say that our assets under management set a new record.
Liquidity Fueled Rally
Some media commentators are saying that this rally is on the back of retail investors and there is a lack of significant institutional participation. There is a flood of cash coming in from the sidelines, some of which is the Fear of Missing Out (FOMO). However, they don’t tell you the entire truth. Company buybacks have formed a safety net on stocks. Individuals are pulling money out of mutual funds (which are classified as institutional) and redeploying those assets in DIY brokerage accounts (classified as retail), such as with Robinhood (HOOD). As an example, Vanguard is trying to hold onto assets by cutting rates on their mutual funds. As people have changed jobs or left the workforce, their 401(k)s are being rolled over to self-directed brokerage accounts.
Is the Market Overpriced?
I would not say that the market is overpriced but one can argue that it is getting rich by typical standards. However, there is another round of earnings that is set to be released in the next few weeks that could tamper the rich valuations. I am reiterating my prediction of SPX 6,700 for the end of 2025, which is well within reach, about 8% from the end of June level.
Some Important Guidelines
Please be aware that we can only accept and respond to business-related texts if sent to our dedicated text line 702-749-9343. All other texts to our personal text lines will be ignored for business purposes. As to emails, we only monitor emails sent to scott@lakeviewaset.com or carly@lakeviewasset.com. All other emails will not be monitored for business purposes. Sending emails to other addresses may result in failure to properly support client needs.
These are regulatory guidelines which we must adhere to. We thank you for your cooperation.
______________________________________________________
Disclosure: At the time of this commentary Scott Rothbort, his family and/or clients of LakeView Asset Management, LLC, were long HOOD & SPY, although positions can change at any time. The mention of stocks are not recommendations and may not be suitable investments for your individual situation.
Scott Rothbort is the President & Founder of LakeView Asset Management, LLC, (LVAM) an investment advisor representative, specializing in high-net-worth private wealth management. LVAM is a separate entity of Osaic Advisory Services, LLC, a registered investment advisor.
For more information on investing with LakeView Asset Management, LLC call us at 702-749-9343 or request more information by clicking on the contact button on the top right-hand corner of the website or by emailing Scott at scott@lakeviewaset.com or Carly at carly@lakeviewasset.com. LakeView Management, LLC is a Nevada LLC, with its principal office located in Henderson, NV and branch office located in Millburn, NJ
© 2025 LakeView Asset Management, LLC. All rights reserved.