August Did Not Go As Planned
Well, my August did not exactly go as planned. Yes, my friends came up for a few days to visit. It was nice to spend time together. Unfortunately, our new boat engine did not function, so our day on Lake George together was cut short. Then came a few days of heavy rain and thus we did not make it to the racetrack. That was bearable but what came next was not. I had a bad case of diverticulitis with an abscess and wound up in Glens Falls Hospital for a week for treatment and observation. Then I was sent home, had to self-administer antibiotics for a week and rested for another week. I did not miss any market action but was too tired after the market closed to write My Gut Feeling, so that is why you have not heard from me since the end of July, and for that I apologize.
I have had diverticulosis for several years with a few flareups of over the years, however this time it became apparent that I need surgery. I am back in Nevada, and the surgery will likely take place in the November-December time frame. I will know well in advance. It’s likely I will miss a few days of work, but Carly is perfectly capable of stepping into my shoes for those days, as she has done previously.
Is September the Worst Month for the Stock Market?
I am sick and tired of hearing that September is the worst month for the market. I have collected and analyzed over seventy years of data for the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 (SPX). Yes, on average, the SPX is the month with the lowest average return. However, that is a very simplistic and lazy way to view the markets. The way that I look at it, the stock market has a forty-eight-month marker cycle – the twelve months of the year, each represented in the four-year Presidential Cycle (Year Before Presidential Election, Year of Presidential Election, Year Following the Presidential Election and the Mid-term Election Year). When you parse it out that way, June of the Mid-term Election Year is the worst month, followed by February of the Year After the Presidential Election and in third place is August of the year after the Presidential Election. Of course, we can slice and dice the day in many ways, but at the end of the day, there are more variables involved, such as the Fed, which party wins the elections, and most of all, the economy.
Then again, maybe Mark Twain had it right when he said, “October: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February.”
As I write (Sunday night), the SPX is at an all-time high of 6,664.36, up 3.16% for the month, following a gain of 1.91% in August. For the quarter, the index is ahead by 7.40%. what does this mean? It means the market is in a bullish trend. Also, the SPX returns only matter if you are indexing. If, however, you are a stock picker, as we are at LakeView Asset Management, it is meaningless. I’ll say this much, for our largest strategy, we have so far bettered the SPX for the quarter and the year.
What Are We Doing?
We are sticking to our knitting in all strategies. Why ruin a good thing? I did put some of the cash we raised in July back to work. Though, it may be time to trim some of our largest holdings such as Nvidia (NVDA), Broadcom (AVGO) and Palantir (PLTR). They have all been quite profitable for our clients and personal accounts, however, they have all been rather volatile recently. PLTR had a nice run after a very positive earnings report. Plus, I am finding some candidates to add to the portfolios and having some ready-to-deploy cash would be a nice thing to have on a pullback. Maybe October will be such a month.
Shanah Tovah
Shanah Tovah – Happy and Healthy New Year – to all who celebrate. May you have a Sweet New Year and be written into the Book of Life. Our offices will be closed this Tuesday and Wednesday for Rosh Hashana and next Thursday for Yom Kippur.
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Disclosure: At the time of this commentary Scott Rothbort, his family and/or clients of LakeView Asset Management, LLC, owned AVGO, NVDA and PLTR, although positions can change at any time. The mention of stocks are not recommendations and may not be suitable investments for your individual situation.
Scott Rothbort is the President & Founder of LakeView Asset Management, LLC, (LVAM) an investment advisor representative, specializing in high-net-worth private wealth management. LVAM is a separate entity of Osaic Advisory Services, LLC, a registered investment advisor.
For more information on investing with LakeView Asset Management, LLC call us at 702-749-9343 or request more information by clicking on the contact button on the top right-hand corner of the website or by emailing Scott at scott@lakeviewasset.com or Carly at carly@lakeviewasset.com. LakeView Management, LLC is a Nevada LLC, with its principal office located in Henderson, NV and branch office located in Millburn, NJ
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