Much to Write About
Since I last published My Gut Feeling, there were so many topics that I wanted to write about. The problem was that as I began to write something, then another event popped up which I wanted to write about. Then we ran up against the Jewish High Holidays, which for the most part was on weekends this year, with the exception of Yom Kippur (we are still amid the High Holidays as Sukkot started Friday night and will last eight days.
Anyway, I decided to write a little bit about a few items rather than concentrating in depth on one particular topic. So, in no specific order, here it goes….
SpaceX – Time to Buy
As I wrote in August, I was waiting for a good opportunity to buy SpaceX after its launch, moon shot and dramatic fall. I saw the stock stabilize and put some of our cash hoard in the Growth Strategy to work in SPCX. Since I did so, the stock has traded in a relatively tight range. That indicates to me that volatility is coming out of the stock and the price is normalizing. This is a good sign for beginning a long-term accumulation of SPCX. I think that yesterday’s SpaceX launch is a good sign of things to come.
AI Alarmism
Two weeks ago, some of the Masters of AI – notably Sam Altman from OpenAI and Dario Amodei from Anthropic, in what was clearly a coordinated effort said the massive AI development needed to be slowed down. Then suddenly, the politicians joined the chorus calling for regulation over AI. Then finally the doomsayers, such as Microsoft’s Bill Gates jumped in saying that AI would kill at least a billion people while others said it would end humanity. Add to this the politically charged debate over the buildout of AI data centers and a major panic ensued.
All the above seemed too coordinated rather than spontaneous. Anthropic is owned by a consortium of investors, including Alphabet (GOOG / GOOGL) and Amazon (AMZN). It is no secret that Anthropic is heading to an IPO and it is in the company’s best interest to try to raise private debt before launching an IPO and management wants to keep the IPO as clean as possible. OpenAI is also owned by a consortium of companies headed by MSFT, but the public face is Sam Altman. Just as with Anthropic, OpenAI wants to raise debt before going public. For both companies, the development of AI is happening so rapidly that perhaps they are seeing competition gaining on them. So why not slow everyone else down?
Well, wouldn’t you know it is two weeks later, a leak over the Anthropic IPO prospectus values the company at $2 trillion, up from $1 trillion in the last funding round. Why not wait longer and get the number up to $4 trillion? The company needs to as it is burning through cash and needs to raise more cash, likely via the credit markets to feed its capex buildout. All this is good news for NVDA.
Also on the same day, two weeks later, the Wall Street Journal reported that OpenAI is scrapping the release of GPT-6.1 Astra, a next-generation AI model planned for an October debut, over safety concerns raised by researchers during internal testing.
As far as politicians’ involvement, that is never a good idea. Remember two of President Ronald Reagan’s quotes:
“The nine most terrifying words in the English language are: I'm from the Government, and I'm here to help.” and…
“Government's view of the economy could be summed up in a few short phrases: If it moves, tax it. If it keeps moving, regulate it. And if it stops moving, subsidize it.”
Furthermore, as you read on, Congress really screwed the pooch on Section 230. Don’t expect that Washington will do any better with AI.
Why should we slow down AI development? So that China or Russia or Romania or other former Soviet republics catch up and get ahead of the United States? Did we slow down the buildout of the internet? Did we slow down the buildout and launch of the smart phone? Would we have gotten to the moon in 1969 if we slowed down the research and development needed to get there? As President Kennedy famously said
“We choose to go to the Moon not because it is easy, but because it is hard.”
That is the attitude that we need with AI, or as President Trump and Chairman XI Jinping of China are now calling it “Super Intelligent.”
So guess what happened after those AI selloffs on that dreary Monday when the AI slowdown announcements came out? The Nasdaq (NDX) then surged to all-time highs. So much for slowing down AI, I mean SI.
Also on the Monday two weeks later, Nvidia (NVDA) made a public statement announcing an historic $150 billion stock buyback over and above the existing $85 billion buyback authorization. In other words, our friend in the Fonzie jacket, Jensen Huang said FU to the AI alarmists. He is quite happy with the direction and magnitude of AI buildouts.
As for building out data centers? Now it is a convenient election year scapegoat. After the election, the buildout will resume as the Energy lobby takes charge.
What Do the Alarmists Really Want?
The AI Moguls, except Huang, DO NOT have altruistic intentions in their insistence on slowing down AI buildout. As I mentioned before, they want to buy time to jack up their valuations by issuing debt before they dump shares on the public market. It is a bull market for credit despite rising rates and some widening spreads. Furthermore, the Alarmists want liability protection. That is where Section 230 comes in.
What does Section 230 do? It provides limited Federal immunity to providers and users of interactive computer services – i.e. the internet. This is how social networks Facebook, owner by Meta (META), X, formerly known as Twitter and GOOG/GOOGL have gotten away with murder, literally and figuratively over the last few decades.
Specifically Section 230 has two main provisions:
- Section 230(c)(1) which says that a provider or user of an interactive computer service cannot be treated as the publisher or speaker of information provided by another information content provider. In plain English, Facebook, the publisher cannot be negligent for the rantings of a postings made by 3rd parties, say the Democratic Socialists.
· 230(c)(2): the “good-faith moderation” rule which adds protection for voluntary, good-faith moderation. It covers actions taken to restrict access to material the provider considers obscene, lewd, excessively violent, harassing, or otherwise objectionable, whether or not the material is constitutionally protected.
The AI Doomsayers will continue their call for a slowdown or “Kill Switch.” That is until they get an AI version of Section 230. Once they do, AI will be built out with reckless abandon.
Remember these were the same people who said that the world would be going to end in twelve years (2031) because of Climate Change.
It is worth noting that for years, Section 230 has been challenged in the courts. Also there is an undertow of legislators who want to revoke Section 230 or water it down. However they are not only fighting Congress but a handful of multi-trillion-dollar companies and their cohorts such as the lobbyists.
_____________________________________________________________________
Disclosure: At the time of this commentary Scott Rothbort, his family and/or clients of LakeView Asset Management, LLC was long SPCX, AMZN, GOOG, MSFT & META - although positions can change at any time. The mention of stocks are not recommendations and may not be suitable investments for your individual situation.
Scott Rothbort is the President & Founder of LakeView Asset Management, LLC, (LVAM) an investment advisor representative, specializing in high-net-worth private wealth management. LVAM is a separate entity of Osaic Advisory Services, LLC, a registered investment advisor.
For more information on investing with LakeView Asset Management, LLC call us at 702-749-9343 or request more information by clicking on the contact button on the top right-hand corner of the website or by emailing Scott at scott@lakeviewasset.com or Carly at carly@lakeviewasset.com. LakeView Management, LLC is a Nevada LLC, with its principal office located in Henderson, NV and branch office located in Millburn, NJ
© 2026 LakeView Asset Management, LLC. All rights reserved.