My Gut Feeling For November 6, 2026: It’s a NIMBY Market

Heading Into the Elections

The elections in the United States and Israel are over. I will focus on the impact of the United States Election for the purposes of this commentary. Heading into November, October was very jittery when it came to Growth Stocks. Likely, there was some front running of the election in the AI and technology sectors. On the other hand, Dividend stocks had a good month with our portfolios rallying to an all-time high for that strategy. Our Consumer portfolio also turned in a positive October. So, Growth seemed to be the scary part of the markets.

After the Elections in the USA

As is usually the case, the party in power during an election year loses seats in the Congress, with some rare exceptions. 2026 was no exception. While the final election counts are not yet finalized, the Democratic Party has gained majority in both houses. What they do with those majorities is yet to be seen and will be closely watched for the next two years.

However, there were a few issues which were at the forefront of the discussion on the campaign trail. I will discuss two of them as they most likely influenced the market reaction to the elections. I call them the NIMBY (not in my back yard) issues.

NIMBY #1 – AI Data Centers

Many candidates, from both parties, campaigned to stop or curtail the construction of data centers. Why is that? Frankly, people did not want data centers near them (NIMBY), due to environmental factors such as:

• Noise
• Heavy reliance on electricity
• Heavy reliance on water

As a result, post-election, there was pressure put on all the stocks in the AI Universe such as: semi-conductors, HVACs and energy producers. The pressure on the day after the election turned into a panicked route yesterday. While I think that is way overdone; still we remained proactive with our risk management.

I will say that while the desire to stop or curtail data center construction may be sanctimonious in some people’s minds but, in my opinion, it is the height of hypocrisy. Why is that? Because the same people who are NIMBY are likely users of AI. Maybe even heavy users of AI. Well guess what, if you don’t want data center built out then you should stop using AI and go to a library for research. Also, if you need customer service go to a store because the online chat sessions and telephone support are driven by AI (until you finally get a human being). Almost everything we use now is in some way or form, a result of AI.

Want to cure the noise issue? Don’t build the centers within a certain distance of housing. We have plenty of available land in this nation.

Want to cure the electricity problem? Use nuclear or solar energy and make the data centers pay for power usage.

Want to cure the water problem? There are many ways of doing so.

NIMBY #2 – Oil Refiners

According to the EIA (the US Energy Information Administration) here are the number of operable refineries in the USA every January 1, since 1949:

Refinery efficiency and hence capacity has increased over the years. That’s a good thing. However, (according to The Daily Automotive and Federal Highway Commission https://thedailyautomotive.com/how-many-cars-were-in-the-us-from-1900-to-2023/ ) the growth in automobile ownership just about tripled since 1970. (see the chart below). At the same time, refineries more than just about halved. As we would say in the garment industry (the schmata business), the cuffs don’t match the collars.

The price of oil because of the Middle East War has risen, but there is still oil flowing around the world in plentiful supply. Crude oil shipment levels have returned to pre-war levels. I believe this is due to market manipulation. Watch it cascade down the further we move away from the election.

Those last two closures were in California. This is estimated to have removed 17% of capacity in that state. Wonder why gas prices are on the rise? It’s not because of crude oil scarcity but because of refinery scarcity.

We simply are not keeping up with refined oil demand. This goes for diesel and jet fuel as well. We could build new refineries but either NIMBY or the push to move from carbon based to “energy efficient” automobiles are standing in the way.

We still own Marathon Petroleum (MPC) and Valero (VLO), two major oil refiners.

What’s Happened to the Markets in General

We are in a correction. Stock prices got too high when the indexes topped out. The post-election NIMBY effect has driven prices lower. It was a correction waiting for a reason and it got one post-election. This is painful to watch. The correction will end. We are not entering a bear market. Remember stocks go up on an escalator and down in an elevator. We feel like we are in the elevator shaft right now. Also, remember that calling market top and bottoms are fools’ errands.

I raised even more cash in our Growth portfolio. Originally, I was going to put it in index ETFs. I decided not to. Now we are looking to put the cash to work in small selective pieces.

Finally, a market mover today could be the jobs report. Non-farm payrolls are expected to grow by 59,000 with the unemployment rate expected to hold at 4.2%.

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Disclosure: At the time of this commentary Scott Rothbort, his family and/or clients of LakeView Asset Management, LLC  was long MPC & VLO - although positions can change at any time. The mention of stocks are not recommendations and may not be suitable investments for your individual situation.

Scott Rothbort is the President & Founder of LakeView Asset Management, LLC, (LVAM) an investment advisor representative, specializing in high-net-worth private wealth management. LVAM is a separate entity of Osaic Advisory Services, LLC, a registered investment advisor. 

For more information on investing with LakeView Asset Management, LLC call us at 702-749-9343 or request more information by clicking on the contact button on the top right-hand corner of the website or by emailing Scott at scott@lakeviewasset.com or Carly at carly@lakeviewasset.com. LakeView Management, LLC is a Nevada LLC, with its principal office located in Henderson, NV and branch office located in Millburn, NJ

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