Normally, the last week of a fiscal quarter would be a quiet affair, dominated by money managers window dressing their portfolios. I used last week to adjust the portfolios, not window dress, ahead of what could be a crazy week. Let’s take a look at the week that will be.
Monday – overall this should be a quiet day as most market players sit on their hands in advance of the evening’s Presidential debate. This will likely be a heavyweight bout and the most watched debate of all-time. Estimates are that 100 million or more households will be tuning in. I will have some interest in Carnival Corp’s (CCL) earnings (which is released after the market close) as we hold investment positions in its chief rival, Royal Caribbean (RCL). The question becomes to what extent the Zika virus and terrorism fears have hurt bookings.
Tuesday – the fallout of the debate will impact markets. The media will likely declare one candidate a “victor” in the debate. That is except of course the New York Times (NYT) which will declare Clinton a victor even if she does not show up. Declaring a “victor” will help shares of companies for which the “wining” candidate’s policies will benefit from. Nike (NKE) reports after the market close to add some more excitement to the day
Wednesday – “Hump Day” has a rather empty calendar except for durable goods orders, which tend to be a rather volatile data series.
Thursday – this is the day when most quarter end portfolio window dressing will take place. On the economic front, there is a slew of data, highlighted by the 3rd estimate of 2nd quarter GDP, which is expected to be 1.3%, somewhat higher than the original 1.1% that was reported. No matter what the actual number is, it will confirm the sub-optimal growth for the US economy. Also weekly unemployment claims and existing home sales will be reported.
Friday – the end of the fiscal quarter, one in which the bulls seemed to have dominated the playing field. There will be some residual window dressing and well as end-of-quarter derivatives expiration that will take place.
From my perspective, most of our adjustments occurred last week, but we will have another day today to make any final adjustments. The debate should be entertaining and I highly recommend watching it. Trump needs to keep himself under control while Clinton needs to defend her poor record in public service and other recent improprieties such as Bengazi and email server. All told, it will be a fun week.
Disclosure: At the time of this commentary Scott Rothbort, his family and/or clients of LakeView AssetManagement, LLC was long RCL — although positions can change at any time.
Scott Rothbort is the President & Founder of LakeView Asset Management, LLC, a registered investment advisor specializing in high net worth private wealth management. For more information on investing with LakeView Asset Management, LLC call us at 888-9LAKEVIEW or request more information by clicking on the contact button on the top right hand corner of the website. LakeView Management, LLC is a Nevada LLC, with its principal office located in Henderson, NV and branch office located in Millburn, NJ
Scott Rothbort is also the publisher of the LakeView Restaurant & Food Chain Report, a newsletter focusing in on food, restaurant, beverage and agricultural stocks. An individual subscription to the newsletter can be ordered at www.restaurantstox.com Furthermore; Scott is also a professor at the Seton Hall Stillman School of Business in South Orange, NJ.
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