Financial markets around the globe are suffering from a bad case of leptokurtosis. This is not a viral disease but a statistical condition. Leptokurtosis is what is known as “fat-tailed” returns. Put another way, market returns are larger – both up and down – than under normal market conditions. Not only are closing returns much […]
The markets have caught a flu of their own. While I have quarantined myself in front of my computer console battling the market’s woes, I have also had the opportunity to speak to many of you on an individual basis as to my opinion on the market decline. As a result, I want to conduct […]
Let me begin by thanking all of you who read my last My Gut Feeling on Deconstructing the Correction as it was the most opened and most read My Gut Feeling of all time. Furthermore, thank you for sharing that commentary on social media and forwarding to friends and colleagues. It is going to be […]
The entire process, from the time I begin to compose My Gut Feeling to when I send out that email which you receive, takes three to four hours. Since the equity markets began to cascade lower on Monday February 24, I set out to write My Gut Feeling on two occasions. Both times, I decided […]
The big question last week was: “Was That THE Bottom?” The reason that I look for A Bottom and THE Bottom is that after a dramatic panic sell-off and rebound, sometimes a reversal of the rebound, or a retest of the panic low takes place. Hence, I had a two-factor method of determining if THE […]
For all the market volatility and hysteria with the Kinahora virus, January has been a good month for the equity markets. I call it the Kinahora virus for a good reason. Kinahora in Yiddish means “not to cast the evil eye.” The Coronavirus certainly tried to cast the evil eye on society and the markets. […]
It has been nearly six years since the Ebola scare in the fall of 2014. Recall that 1) early-mid October that year, we had a nasty panic driven sell-off in the markets and 2) we were all supposed to die from Ebola as it was destined to be the worst pandemic since the Black Plague. […]
We have an expression in my business that “trees don’t grow to the sky.” With the exception of perhaps Jack’s beanstalk; that is true. What the expression means to say is that stocks can’t rise too far without getting trimmed. Equity markets have had a remarkable run since the bottom of the Powell Panic. In […]
Another year has come and gone. 2019 was a breakout year for the US economy and global stock markets. Heading into last year, investors and analysts were guarded given the Federal Reserve’s blunder in 2018’s fourth quarter, which I refer to as, “The Powell Panic of 2018.” We spent several months reversing the economic and […]
As 2019 began, I published My Gut Feeling For 2019. Now that 2019 is in the books, I want to look back at how my expectations and predictions fared in 2019. Recall these predictions were made in the spirit of the old Wall Street Week with Louis Rukeyser show in that they were fixed a year […]
